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The War is Over

: history, August 05 2023

I should have written this 3 months ago, mid-April, as at this point it was day-clear - the real Russo-Ukrainian war is over! "What are you talking about, you dumb idiot - the fighting still goes on, even now!" you may say (understandable, as west of Kiev the incredible brain-washing continues). I am saying that way before the so-called Ukrainian counter offensive, all parties of significance - Russia, US and China - knew the outcome and agreed this farce has to end. Neither sanctions, nor Leopards, Bradleys, Storm Shadows or other fabled super-weapon could have turned the tide. Russians are just too many and fairly well prepared to defend. Yes, they took massive losses. So what? Trading 1 for 2 (3,4) works perfectly for the Russian doctrine. The counter attack halted to a standstill just days after it started - for the past two months the individual, fruitless skirmishes can hardly be classified as an active war. Both Russia and Ukraine wait for US to push the "peace talk" button on the puppet.
In April 2023, US politicians finally realized they need a graceful exit. None of them could explain to the voters how the State is bankrupt and "the annual" raise of the debt ceiling is needed to prevent catastrophe, and, at the same time, pouring massive funds to the war effort in a country, most of their people cannot identify on the map. President Zelensky believed just too much in his significance, and went on a tour, extorting westerners here and there, ultimately to get major bitch-slapping at the NATO meeting in Vilnius, 12 July 2023. Allies made it clear: "Ukraine is not that important for us to start a full-blown war with Russia, know your place peasant!". Have you heard from him since? No?
Spending a billion per day in aid and sanctions turned from "ineffective" to "dangerous" as more and more people on the Old Continent started questioning why their taxpayers money fuel this US-initiated debacle. Europe's economy is in the trash - thousands of companies go bankrupt each month, hundreds withdraw to safer/cheaper havens like China and the Americas. War donations may work for US and its vast military-industrial complex, but it is not the same for Germany - scraping the bottom of the barrel, unable to provide the sustenance for its own army. Angry voices from the high-ranking officers and ministers rose. The media was switched to start pushing the "we will seek peace, Russians bad" agenda.
Democrats are losing ground by the day, incapable to handle the gender-racial-corpo mess they created. Their policies receive heavy backlash from the normal population. Unless another major election "adjustment" is undertaken, Mr. Trump is sure to win the chair next year.
A huge problem of finding "volunteers" to fight for Ukraine appeared. Local men understandably did not want to become a cannon fodder for their marionette government and the American ambitions, ran away years ago. Now you can see them lying on the beaches in Bulgaria and Greece, waiting for the inevitable peace-treaty. Mercenaries and the so-called "willing soldiers" (often sent by their own government) are not stupid, nor unlimited. In the early 2022 the unofficial rate was ~$3K, but now rumors claim almost double. Seems like nobody wants to face the old, drunk, poorly equipped russians in combat. My incompetent opinion is that there are almost no native fighters in the Ukrainian army.
President Putin had so much fun in the last months, fully confident of reaching his own objectives (not the announced ones, you dummy, check the previous article), that he asked his "cook" to stage a fake coup, just to check if any subversive element will dare to join. Side quest - relocated the toughest mercenaries on the other flank of the enemy, while everyone still scratch their heads. Come on guys, taking Moscow with 20K-no-air-support army. Really? But the clock is also ticking for the Russian President. Some drones hit the capital, ships getting attacked in the Black Sea and this cannot be. Also forced to put special decrees to keep his own military staffed. On the other hand, one of his biggest personal projects, BRICS, goes so well, the entire world started questioning the petro-dollar and its eternal hegemony.
As I write this article, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia a peace talks have started...without Russia being invited. 40 countries will try to create some scenario, where The West will come out as a generous peacemaker, nobody will even ask Ukraine what they want or how to compromise with their territory (Crimea is out of the question) - that is more than clear, Russia will receive the plan and will later accept it, after adding some changes. If this round is not successful, next will come in less than a month. There will be no victor or defeated. Everyone will be a "winner". Most of the sanctions will be lifted by the same time next year. Quietly. Some new Bosnia-of-the-east will appear on the map. A government will change, as local people "miraculously" learn how much money it stole and the real blunders behind its war efforts. People will fall from windows. Advanced NATO military equipment will pop-up on the black market. Arms producers are living their wet dreams. How convenient, isn't it?
This war ended, next one (Africa) is just around the corner.